Box Office: ‘Sonic’ And ‘Bad Boys 3’ Are The Hits Paramount And Sony Needed

Sonic the Hedgehog earned another $5.05 million on Tuesday, a decline of 58% from its holiday-infused Monday gross, and $2.68 million (-47%) on Wednesday. That brings the film’s six-day domestic cume to $77.76 million. I’m inclined to think that the James Marsden/Jim Carrey movie will be at least somewhat leggy, even if the 3.12x multiplier of Kingsman ($128 million from a $41.5 million Fri-Mon launch in 2015) is possibly a pipe dream. Sonic is already the seventh-biggest video game-based movie ever in unadjusted domestic grosses, now sitting between Mortal Kombat ($70.4 million in 1995/$145 million adjusted for inflation) and Pokémon: The First Movie ($85.7 million in 1999/$154 million adjusted). Meanwhile, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys For Life is inching closer to $200 million domestic.

Sony’s Bad Boys For Life has earned around $185 million in North America after actually going up last holiday weekend. The Will Smith/Martin Lawrence vehicle is on the path to be A) the first “new” January release to top $200 million domestic (American Sniper, which earned $350 million, was an Oscar platformer that went wide in early 2015), B) one of the biggest buddy cop actioners of all time in unadjusted grosses and C) one of the biggest R-rated action movies ever in (again, sans inflation) unadjusted grosses. Heck, it’s currently the year’s biggest-grossing movie, and it’s not 100% certain Sonic the Hedgehog, Onward, A Quiet Place Part II or even No Time to Die can top wherever it ends up.

Sonic will pass Mewtwo Strikes Back tomorrow. A halfway decent Friday hold will be enough to put it past Prince of Persia ($90 million in 2010/$105 million adjusted). Even a 50% weekend drop $29 million from its $58 million Fri-Sun debut) would put it at around $112 million in ten days, above Rampage ($101 million in 2018) and The Angry Birds Movie ($107.5 million in 2016). So Sonic the Hedgehog is going to probably end its second weekend below only Tomb Raider ($131 million in 2001/$211 million adjusted) and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($144 million in 2019) among all theatrically-released video game-based movies. So, getting to the top spot is only a matter of time.Today In: Business

Once Bad Boys 3 passes $191 million, it’ll passes the unadjusted grosses of 22 Jump Street (from 2014) to become the second-biggest buddy cop flick ever behind Rush Hour 2 ($224 million in 2001). That cume will also make it the second-biggest January release ever when adjusted for inflation behind M.A.S.H. ($71 million in 1970/$456 million adjusted). That will also continue to push it higher on the list of (unadjusted) R-rated actioners, behind Terminator 2: Judgment Day ($204 million in 1991), Saving Private Ryan ($216.5 million in 1998), Logan ($226 million in 2017), Beverly Hills Cop ($232 million in 1984), Matrix Reloaded ($279 million in 2003), Deadpool 2 ($324 million in 2018), American Sniper ($350 million in 2014/2015) and Deadpool ($363 million in 2016).

Even legs like Deadpool ($363 million from a $152 million Fr-Mon debut in 2016) gets Sonic the Hedgehog to $167 million domestic. That would be past the $155 million “adjusted for inflation” cumes of Mortal Kombat and Pokémon: The First Movie, leaving only Tomb Raider’s potentially pie-in-the-sky inflation-adjusted domestic figures. Legs like Black Panther gets it to $202 million. That may be unlikely since it’s not like there’s a Super Smash Bros movie opening in late April to keep it in the news. If Sonic can survive Onward on March 6, then Peter Rabbit 2 (April 3) is a long way off. We may have the first $200 million-grossing January release and the first $200 million video game movie in early 2020.